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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd