Why Is The Current American Government Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?
Government closures have become a recurring element of US politics – but the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve because of political dynamics and deep-seated animosity between both major parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 employees likely to be placed on unpaid leave as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on a clear resolution path this time as both parties – including the nation's leader – can see some merit in digging in.
Here are several key factors that make things feel different currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
The Democratic base has been demanding for months that their party more forcefully fights the current presidency. Currently the party leadership has a chance to show they have listened.
Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a government closure early this year. Now he's digging in.
This is a chance for Democrats to show they can take back some control from an administration that has moved aggressively on its agenda.
Refusing to back the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
The Democrats are leveraging the budget standoff to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies together with GOP-backed government healthcare cuts for the poor, which are both unpopular.
Additionally, they're attempting to curtail executive utilization of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The President and one of his key officials have made little secret their perspective that they perceive an opening to make more of the cutbacks in government employment that have featured the current presidential term so far.
The President himself said last week that the government closure had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts remains unclear, but the White House has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, which is headed by the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
While previous shutdowns typically involved late-night talks between the two parties aimed at restoring federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Instead, animosity prevails. The bad blood persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions over a deal "for electoral protection".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader made similar charges against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks once the government reopens cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has inflamed the situation by posting a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader along with another senior opposition figure, in which the legislator appears wearing a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.
The representative with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Experts project approximately two-fifths of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave as a result of the shutdown.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of government activity tied to business cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects new uncertainty within economic systems already being roiled from multiple factors including trade measures, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Economic forecasters project potential reduction of approximately 0.2% off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds the majority of interrupted operations following resolution, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, analysts say should administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become extended in duration.